The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Aletta was centered about 425 miles (680 kilometers) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, late Wednesday. The fact that their results show quite similar trends should be a wake-up call.
He said beyond the changes in regularity and intensity of cyclones, their very "behaviour" was being affected by climate change. It stated the storm was forecast to maintain shifting out into the Pacific.
A scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has found a link between global warming and the speed of hurricanes. In some regions, the pace of those storms slowed even more as they hit land. In the Atlantic region, storms moved 20 percent slower over land, the study found.
Gutmann and Kossin took entirely different approaches-one looking at historical data; the other using modeling to see how storms would behave under predicted warming scenarios.
"If the atmosphere can hold more water vapor, then things are going to tend to rain more", Kossin said. "The storms will stay in your neighborhoods longer".
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Kossin would actually agree on that point.
That means that storms farther from land in the earlier part of the study may not have had their speeds included in the study.
In a warming world where atmospheric circulations are expected to change, the atmospheric circulation that drives tropical cyclone movement is expected to weaken. For instance, if exceptionally slow-moving storms have grown more likely in recent years, does that mean "stalled" storms like Harvey-which seemed to get stuck in place for days-are increasing, too?
While the new research suggests hurricanes and typhoons are slowing down over time, more work needs to be done to improve prediction models for how hurricanes may behave in the future. "There's been a sea change there in terms of what's unsafe".
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